We know how important this is to you! But all the variability, randomness and seasonality in the system – to make smart guess whether a particular train ticket in wait list can get confirmed aka PNR Confirmation Probability is a tough but very important problem to crack. It is important because it can bring in huge amount of savings from time, cost and anxiety perspective.
So we got ourselves working on getting the PNR ticket confirmation probability right over the last few years.
Bunch of very smart data scientists and engineers with fantastic background took the help of some smart technology and mathematical techniques to extrapolate the future. Techniques such as correlation methods, ANOVA, and touch of stochastic methods have been made to work.
The result – we are now able to make respectable 93-94% predictions right.
And for the ones which go wrong – we analyze each of them. Each of this failure makes our prediction algorithm smarter (thats AI in work).
Infact going forward we are going to put 20 points to the users for whom we failed. We believe that we owe these points to them for two reasons – one for the inconvenience which could have been caused for the wrong prediction and second for thanking them in their contribution to make us smarter.